Predications from an In-House Integrator | Integrator Insights
Science has not yet mastered prophecy. We predict too much for the next year and yet far too little for the next 10.
Neil armstrong
The theme for January is Predictions for 2022 (and Beyond). This is gonna be fun. The best part about predictions is that there are no wrong answers! I’ve seen so many pundits out there with their annual predictions, and I’ve always wanted a platform to make some predictions of my own, so here’s my chance. I love that quote above from Neil Armstrong because it is so true. It is likely that my near-term predictions will be overly ambitious, and for my long-term predictions, I will be thinking too small. But only time will tell!
Prediction #1: Higher education AV professionals will continue to strengthen as a force in the pro-AV industry. With the formation of HETMA, I really believe the diverse group which is higher ed AV will continue to coalesce into groups that can have significant sway in the marketplace. As evidence, I’d point to the higher education turnout at InfoComm 2021; the place was awash with technology managers. I’d also point to the AVNation Best Of awards for the last few years: among events, training, projects, and most importantly the AV Professional of the Year, higher ed has had a significantly disproportional presence. Finally, look at the massive impressions received when there has been a higher ed takeover of #AVinTheAM; we have hit 6 million impressions three times! The industry is taking notice, and it will not be slowing down in 2022; higher ed technology managers will continue to unite and grow into one of the most influential verticals in the pro AV market!
Prediction #2: Manufacturers will increasingly sell directly to qualified in-house integrators. Yes, you heard it here. There will definitely be a growth of programs that provide direct sales to in-house integrators. This, of course, will be one of the leading results of Prediction #1 above. I don’t necessarily see any college or university getting wide access to that pricing, only those that can show they operate a legitimate turn-key integration unit. By showing annual purchase amounts, proper certifications and training, and industry experience, many enterprises will start to earn the right to join the integrator channel for sales. Where will it start? Perhaps with one or two of the larger distributors and some of the smaller manufacturers. Where will it end? With an industry-wide shift to a model where wholesale pricing is given to any organization that can meet the manufacturers’ qualifications, regardless of their business model. Granted that end-case is probably 5-10 years down the road, but when we look back 10 years from now, we’ll point to 2020/2021 as the inflection point, not insignificantly including the date of HETMA’s incorporation.
Prediction #3: The current set of dedicated video connectors are the last set to be invented. I made this prediction and the fourth prediction in my November 2021 column, and many of you have heard me make this prediction on a podcast or in a tweet here or there. This is a longer-term prediction. By no means am I implying HDMI is going away in 2022, but I believe it has reached its zenith and will only be trending downward. In 2022, the adoption of USB-C as a primary connection method for computer monitors will explode. This will all but seal the death certificate for any dedicated video connections. The current set of dedicated video connection standards, HDMI, DisplayPort, and for those SDI fans out there, BNC, will not have replacements. Everything is inevitably heading to a day when all audiovisual connections are made with either a network connection (wired or wireless) or a USB/Thunderbolt connection. For those of you who STILL have not accepted it yet, AV is IT. The IT takeover of the AV space is well underway and, well, resistance is futile. Get educated quickly on USB4 and Thunderbolt 4.0; they will soon be largely synonymous and interchangeable, and they will take over the video connection space. The only caveat to this prediction is cable length; right now, HDMI has a significant advantage over the Thunderbolt 4.0’s 2m passive cable length limitation. However, with active cables or soon-to-be-invented extenders (the market will require this invention), I don’t see this limitation lasting for very long; by the end of 2022, I predict there will be a plethora of methods to extend Thunderbolt 4.0 far past 2m.
Prediction #4: Within 5 years, you will see entry-level consumer TVs with only a power plug (and maybe a USB port); no HDMI, no wired network connection, no F-connector for cable or antenna. This prediction received a lot of response when I first put it up on Twitter. I suspect a lot of the confusion is around the term entry-level. I’m NOT predicting that all TVs will be HDMI-free in 5 years; of course, there will continue to be higher-end uses like gaming. However, while the higher-end TVs will maintain input ports for at least 20 years, there is definitely a market for TVs that just simply support streaming at a budget price. For my wife and I, right now, 100% of our media content consumption is over WiFi in our house. We have two TVs that, if they had Roku built-in, would not have anything connected via HDMI – the only thing currently connected is a Roku box. We own Blu-ray players, but I literally can’t remember the last time I watched a disk. Also, review Prediction 3 above, USB/Thunderbolt will be very quickly adopted. Just you wait, there will be TVs released with no HDMI ports within 5 years. “Iocane. I’d bet my life on it.” – Prince Humperdinck (The Princess Bride) “TVs with no HDMI ports. I’d bet my life on it” – Mike Pedersen
Prediction #5: The COVID-19 virus and its variants will be considered endemic before the end of 2022, meaning it will be widely and forever in circulation like the cold and flu. While semantically this will end the pandemic, I believe it will also be functionally over in our daily lives, too, by fall. Between vaccinations and an increasingly high number of individuals who will achieve natural immunity, it will become simply another annoying annual ailment. Special considerations beyond what had previously been in place for cold and flu season will no longer be required. I guess ultimately this is a prayer every bit as much as a prediction.
To finish up, here are a few quick predictions:
Prediction #6: The InfoComm trade show will make a permanent change to October. (Hey, a person can dream, right?)
Prediction #7: A woman will be chosen as AV Professional of the Year in 2022.
Prediction #8: Joe Way will be seen and heard from everywhere. (OK, yeah, that’s not much of a prediction.)
Prediction #9: The AV industry will continue to make slow but steady progress in diversity, equity, and inclusion in 2022.
Prediction #10: HETMA’s spring conference will be absolutely spectacular!
For those of you who read this column, follow me on social media, or have heard me on podcasts, most of these predictions will not be new to you, but it is nice to get them all organized and down for posterity. Will I be right? Let me know what you think!