Nothing in the world can one imagine beforehand, not the least thing, everything is made up of so many unique particulars that cannot be forseen.
Nostradamus
Channeling My Inner Nostradamus | Integrator Insights
By Mike Pedersen
Wait, it is January 2023 already!?! Where did 2022 go?
Looking Back
Well, since it is January, time to make some Scientific Wild-Ass Guesses (SWAG), er, I mean, well-researched and carefully considered thoughts on what 2023 will bring. But before we dive into genius prognostications, let’s spend a quick moment and see how I did in my 2022 predictions:
- “Higher education AV professionals will continue to strengthen as a force in the pro AV industry.” Well, that one is definitely coming true! We continued to be force at InfoComm 2022 and moving into 2023 we will have our own dedicated awards night. This prediction is just getting warmed up! Score: CORRECT!
- “Manufacturers will increasingly sell direct to qualified in-house integrators.” OK, I’ll admit I was overly optimistic about this one. I’m not quite ready to say this will never happen, so we’ll just keep this one on the back burner. Score: NOT SO MUCH!
- TRUE SO FAR! “The current set of dedicated video connectors are the last set to be invented.” So far, this is true; no new connector types have been announced. Score: TRUE SO FAR!
- “Within 5 years, you will see entry-level consumer TVs with only a power plug (and maybe a USB port); no HDMI, no wired network connection, no F-connector for cable or antenna.” I’ll just leave you with two words: Displace TV. (LG kinda announced one, too, but it has a dedicated connection box that connects wirelessly to the display, so it still ultimately has ports.) Score: NAILED IT!
- “The COVID-19 virus and its variants will be considered endemic before the end of 2022, meaning it will be widely and forever in circulation like the cold and flu.” Did this come true or not? Well, it kinda feels true, but professionals have not technically declared it endemic yet. Here’s a great article about the question of when the pandemic is considered over. Score: PROBABLY NOT…
- “The InfoComm trade show will make a permanent change to October.” Score: NEVER GONNA HAPPEN!
- “A woman will be chosen as AV Professional of the Year in 2022.” Cheers to our very own Lex Peters! Well done! Score: SO GLAD TO BE RIGHT!
- “Joe Way will be seen and heard from everywhere.” I’ll leave you a number, and you can guess what it represents: 53. Score: THAT WAS EASY!
- “The AV industry will continue to make slow but steady progress in diversity, equity, and inclusion in 2022.” I think this is happening. There has been a lot of deep discussions around this topic this past year. If you didn’t notice, every regular individual guest on the Higher Ed AV Podcast from August through the end of the year were all women. Score: YES, BUT NO REST!
- “HETMA’s spring conference will be absolutely spectacular!” From a completely unbiased and absolutely objective perspective – it just was. Score: OH YEAH!
So, I’ll give myself 7/10 – in most cases that’s a C-, so there is lots of room for improvement here.
Looking Forward
So, with that, let’s move on to my predictions for 2023!
Prediction #1: Hybrid Learning has reached a new plateau, but growth will slow. The pandemic definitely pushed higher education to a significantly new level of use and acceptance of hybrid technologies. With CARES Act funding, schools who had little infrastructure in place suddenly found most or all their classrooms equipped for some level of hybrid functionality. Instructors who were left with few options but to use technology gained confidence and acceptance. However, I think in 2023 the growth of hybrid usage will slow. It turns out another lesson the pandemic taught us was that all of us, including faculty and students, need people, we need live interaction, we need the sense of presence only in-person events can provide. What I predict is that the use of synchronous modes of hybrid instruction has peaked and will likely decline over the next two years. On the other hand, lecture capture for use in asynchronous learning and review will continue a slow steady increase in adoption.
Prediction #2: Higher Education focused coverage for ISE will be the best it has ever been. I mean, the team is amazing! With an all-star team from Higher Ed AV Media joining forces with our peer organizations in Europe, you’ll get the best insights and top picks than ever before!
Prediction #3: AV-over-IP will continue to become standard for new building construction and major renovations. This is a no-brainer really. By now, many schools have had a proof-of-concept solution somewhere on their campus, and, if they are like us here at Iowa State University, they are finding AV-over-IP to be incredibly reliable, robust, and easy to implement. I would go so far as to predict 50% of AV designs developed in 2023 for new capital construction projects will have at least an AV-over-IP backbone if not a wholesale design.
Prediction #4: You will hear significantly less about the Metaverse and significantly more on practical advances in machine learning like ChatGPT. The Metaverse is frankly still years away from anything ready for prime time, if it ever materializes, and I have my doubts. What you will hear more about is ChatGPT and its siblings. For one thing, it becomes a whole new headache for determining academic honesty when these technologies can literally write term papers for students. There will be a lot of discussion around methods to identify automated text as well as technologies and policies that may be implemented to prevent any type of cheating. On the other hand, writing documentation for AV systems is a task often done quickly or simply undone. What are the possibilities of using automated solutions to write customized system instructions for each space? It is the type of win-win that AV Teams should be considering!
Prediction #5: Supply chains will be nearing pre-pandemic lead-times by the end of 2023. This is a bold prediction, and frankly, probably without any factual basis. For me, it is just more of a feeling. I think China will continue to remove COVID lockdowns and increase production. Many industries ahead of us, like automobile manufacturing, are seeing their production recover, and that will finally start to free up additional chip deliveries to pro AV. And, frankly, with recession fears, demand will decrease in 2023. All that adds up to much better stock levels in AV manufacturers’ warehouses.
Finally, here are my quick predictions, presented without discussion:
Prediction #6: The ETC conference hosted at USC will be epic.
Prediction #7: We will see a slate of new professional grade devices that serve as generalized PC docking stations supporting video output, audio input and output, USB devices, and up to 65W of charging power.
Prediction #8: There will be increased interactions between higher education AV staff in North America with staff from Europe.
Prediction #9: We will start to get requests from faculty for 8K displays.
Prediction #10: The Iowa State Cyclone men’s and women’s basketball teams will both make the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournaments.
What do you think? Which of my predictions do you agree or disagree with? What are your predictions? Send us a note below or on the socials!
